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Black Box Thinking

Many self-proclaimed experts analyze data to offer success formulas without truly understanding the underlying mechanisms. Genuine expertise comes from knowing the internal workings rather than making guesses based on external observations.
Black Box Thinking

"Experts" are everywhere. They claim to have cracked the code, offering up formulas for how to succeed based on hours spent analyzing posts or combing through thousands of profiles. Based on these insights, they share how you can be successful (often by spending money with them or giving them attention). But here's the reality: observing from the outside doesn't make someone an expert.

The Black Box

Think of LinkedIn's algorithm as a black box—complex, inaccessible, and constantly evolving. People who study it from the outside may see patterns, make guesses, or even collect data points. They might say, "I spent a thousand hours analyzing ten thousand posts, and here's the ultimate playbook for success." But did they design the algorithm? Did they have access to its inner workings? No. They're like someone guessing the contents of a locked box based on the sound it makes when they shake it.

Sometimes, a single observation is enough, as in the case of the Titanic's captain seeing an iceberg and understanding the risk. But most of these gurus don't have an evident "iceberg." They have bits and pieces, fragments that they extrapolate into sweeping rules. Just because they observe trends doesn't mean they understand causation or that these trends exist.

Black Box Spectators

In reality, true expertise requires a foundation that goes beyond superficial data points. Only those who understand the internal workings—the "engineers" behind the algorithm—can accurately interpret how it operates. The rest of us are just spectators, often confusing correlation with causation.

So, next time you see a new "rulebook" from someone claiming expertise, ask yourself: Is this insight or speculation? Just because someone spends hours staring at a black box doesn't mean they've unlocked its secrets.

You can shake the black box for hours, but you won't know what's inside until you open it and examine its contents.