The Bubble Test

When you encounter a new idea, your mind goes through a mental gauntlet: Does this make sense to me? Can I test it in the real world?

These two questions—about internal coherence and external validity—are crucial for evaluating ideas. But here’s the catch: most people stop at step 1. If it doesn’t feel right, they dismiss it outright, leaving no room for experimentation or learning.

Internal Coherence and the Bubble Logic

Internal coherence is about aligning new ideas with your existing worldview. If something doesn’t fit, your brain flags it as inconsistent, potentially flawed. It’s your “bubble logic” at work, protecting you from ideas that might disrupt the way you think. But what happens when you rely solely on internal coherence? You build a self-sealing bubble, resistant to external evidence and innovation.

External Validity

External validity is where things get interesting. Testing an idea in the real world can shatter misconceptions or confirm brilliance. The problem? If an idea doesn’t pass your internal filter, you’re less likely to test it. This bias leaves great ideas unexplored, and your bubble grows stronger.

Balancing Both for Growth

How do you escape this trap? Cultivate intellectual humility. Start by challenging your gut reactions. Instead of asking, “Does this idea make sense to me?” ask, “What would it take for this idea to work?” Then, test it. Even ideas that seem incoherent at first can lead to breakthroughs when validated in the real world.

Your bubble isn’t inherently bad; it’s just incomplete. The best ideas live at the intersection of internal coherence and external validity. Break the habit of letting one dominate the other. That’s where growth happens.